Under current Baccarat rules (5% commission on all Bank wins), the expected outcome for a Bank wager is:

E(Bank Wager) = 0.4585974(+0.95) + 0.4462466(-1) + 0.0951560(0) = -0.0105791,

or roughly -1.06%. Similar calculations for the Player and Tie wagers yield expectations of -1.24% and -14.36%, respectively.

If the 5% commission is eliminated and, instead, the Bank is

“barred ” from winning on a Bank total of X, the expected outcome for the Bank Wager becomes

E(Bank wager if Bank is barred from winning on a total of X)

= (0.4585974 - p)(+1) + 0.4462466(-1) + (0.0951560 + p)(0),

where X represents the barred Bank total and p the contribution to the overall Bank winning percentage for X (i.e., p = Prob{Bank total = X and Bank wins}).

Barring the winning 3-card totals of 7: 1.018% house edge

4.914% equivalent commission.

43.4 to 1 odds

The odds stated in connection with the above specific barred situation represent the odds of the bank obtaining the given total and this total exceeding that of the Player. For example, on any given hand, the odds against the Bank obtaining a 3-card total of seven and winning (under current unrevised rules) are 43.4 to 1.